The market moved
+7.4ppin 24h · now 9¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 7?
Weather · resolves Aug 7 · vol $2.1K
Why
Probability rose decisively up to 9¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 7.4pp shift. Resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded in the 'daily observations' table on weather underground, not the figure displayed in t — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in t — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 7.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.