The market moved
+12.5ppin 24h · now 34¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 12?
Weather · resolves Jul 12 · vol $387.94
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 34¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 12.5pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 29.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.