The market moved
-3.5ppin 24h · now 25¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15?
Weather · resolves Jun 15 · vol $111.04
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 25¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 26.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.