The market moved

+23.0ppin 24h · now 30¢

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 10?

Weather · resolves Aug 10 · vol $6.4K

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 30¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 23.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded in the 'daily observations' table on weather underground, not the figure displayed in t — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in t — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 0.0h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.