Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 24?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 14¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 15.5pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 21.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.