Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 14?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.9pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 21.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.