The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 1¢
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on August 8?
Weather · resolves Aug 8 · vol $27.01
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 1¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded in the 'daily observations' table on weather underground, not the figure displayed in t — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in t — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 29.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.