The market moved

-6.0ppin 24h · now 18¢

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 1?

Weather · resolves Jul 1 · vol $1.5K

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 18¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.0pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 10.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.