The market moved
-1.6ppin 24h · now 3¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 1?
Weather · resolves Jul 1 · vol $685.04
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.6pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 2.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.