The market moved

+0.2ppin 24h · now

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on August 7?

Weather · resolves Aug 7 · vol $385.02

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 1¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.2pp shift. Resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded in the 'daily observations' table on weather underground, not the figure displayed in t — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in t — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 2.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.