The market moved
+8.3ppin 24h · now 34¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 12?
Weather · resolves Jul 12 · vol $743.13
Why
Probability rose decisively up to 34¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 8.3pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 26.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.