The market moved
-4.8ppin 24h · now 20¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15?
Weather · resolves Jun 15 · vol $735.70
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 20¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.8pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 20.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.