The market moved
+13.6ppin 24h · now 17¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 3?
Weather · resolves Jul 3 · vol $2.3K
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 17¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 13.6pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 23.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.