The market moved
+2.0ppin 24h · now 40¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on July 1?
Sports · resolves Jul 1 · vol $6.2K
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 40¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 18.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.