Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 15?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 20¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 7.5pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 28.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.