Hong Kong Election: Geographical Constituency Seat Turnover >40%?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2025/eng/index.html).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.