The market moved

-3.6ppin 24h · now

Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?

Geopolitics · resolves Jan 30 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.6pp shift. Resolution depends on cloudflare radar data for iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the prior four-weeks maximum for — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the prior four-weeks maximum for — https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.