The market moved
-2.1ppin 24h · now 3¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Geopolitics · resolves May 31 · vol $43.2K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.1pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.