Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 22¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.8pp shift. Resolution depends on reuters — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: disputed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: reuters — https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "disputed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.