The market moved
+4.5ppin 24h · now 28¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?
Geopolitics · resolves Jul 18 · vol $2.0K
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 28¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.