The market moved
+11.5ppin 24h · now 22¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 29, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 29 · vol $592.65
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 22¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 11.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.