Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 48¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 25.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 39.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.