Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on israeli government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Israeli government.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.