Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on reuters — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: reuters — https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.