Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referendum

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information — https://www.esteri.it/en/servizi-consolari-e-visti/italiani-all-estero/votoestero/elezionipolitiche/referendum-abrogativi-2025/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.