Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.3pp shift. Resolution depends on the silver bulletin election forecast on october 4, 2024 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the Silver Bulletin election forecast on October 4, 2024 — https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.