Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 15?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov.hk — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov.hk — https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 27.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.