The market moved

-0.4ppin 24h · now

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on August 10?

Weather · resolves Aug 10 · vol $1.1K

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'daily observations' table on weather underground, not the figure displayed in th — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in th — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.