Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on August 8?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.9pp shift. Resolution depends on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'daily observations' table on weather underground, not the figure displayed in th — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in th — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 25.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.