Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 16?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 8¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.4pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 35.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.