The market moved
-7.5ppin 24h · now 14¢
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 14?
Weather · resolves May 14 · vol $49.58
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 14¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 7.5pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 29.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.
