Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 17?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 43¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 10.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'daily observations' table on weather underground, not the figure displayed in th — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in th — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 22.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.