The market moved

-0.2ppin 24h · now

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026?

Weather · resolves Dec 31 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.2pp shift. Resolution depends on earthquake.usgs.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: earthquake.usgs.gov — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.