The market moved
-3.5ppin 24h · now 26¢
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-03?
Sports · resolves Jun 3 · vol $302.32
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 26¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official statistics — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: official statistics.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 8.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.