March Madness: 12 or more first round upsets?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 14.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the number of “upsets” that occur in the first round of the 2025 march madness tournament — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the number of “upsets” that occur in the first round of the 2025 March Madness Tournament.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.