Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 42¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on mlb.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: MLB.com.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 2.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.