The market moved
-22.5ppin 24h · now 48¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 15?
Other · resolves Jul 15 · vol $961.89
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 48¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 22.5pp shift. Resolution depends on russian government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Russian government.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.