Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $490 on August 11?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 93¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 23.2pp shift. Resolution depends on pyth futures price feed — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Pyth futures price feed — https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 5.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.