The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 89¢
National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?
Politics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $17.16
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 89¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.