The market moved
+2.0ppin 24h · now 29¢
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Other · resolves Dec 31 · vol $73.35
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 29¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.