The market moved
-38.5ppin 24h · now 12¢
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on July 28?
Macro · resolves Jul 28 · vol $51.52
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 38.5pp shift. Resolution depends on wall street journal — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 2.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.