The market moved
-1.0ppin 24h · now 5¢
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
Macro · resolves Jan 29 · vol $312.55
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on bureau of economic — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Bureau of Economic — https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.