The market moved
-1.5ppin 24h · now 100¢
New US sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justices by September 30?
Politics · resolves Oct 31 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 100¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: US government — https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/11/bolsonaro-supreme-court-conviction-00558165.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.