The market moved
-2.0ppin 24h · now 11¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Other · resolves Jan 31 · vol $2.3K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 11¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.