The market moved

+0.5ppin 24h · now 94¢

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?

Macro · resolves Sep 29 · vol $11.88

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 94¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the september 2026 meeting of the reserve bank of a — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of A — https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.