Nothing Ever Happens: Russian Capture Edition

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 46.3pp shift. Resolution depends on polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Russian+Capture+Edition.pdf.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.