Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 100¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.2pp shift. Resolution depends on to the price scoring methodology of derivative — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the price scoring methodology of derivative — https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.