Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Under 15% by Friday?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 100¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 14.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the price scoring methodology of derivative — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the price scoring methodology of derivative — https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-out-in-2025?tid=1764693458625).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.