Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 30%?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the price scoring methodology of derivative — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the price scoring methodology of derivative — https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.