The market moved
+21.5ppin 24h · now 100¢
Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Under 40% by Friday?
Culture · resolves Dec 5 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 21.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the price scoring methodology of derivative — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: to the price scoring methodology of derivative — https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by?tid=1764682726361).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.